Sylvia's Journal

I have known about the concept of VUCA for some time (Volatile, Uncertain, Chaotic  (or Complex) and Ambiguous). It has been a theoretical concept, only mildly expressed in my peaceful and protected life in Manchester by the sea. I didn’t really understand what VUCA means until our meeting this afternoon with the ICRC officer in charge of our security briefing. As he described the political situation in Mali, the letters VUCA flashed in front of my eyes.  There are so many factors at work, so many interests, so many weapons, so much unchartered territory, so much anger, so much disappointment, so much mistrust.  There is the vast Sahel, flooded with weapons drugs and the most desperate young people seeking a better life in Europe..and always people taking advantage of the misery of others to enrich themselves. And then there is a very divided governing elite, plus active religious partisans – I is hard to wrap your head around it.  

If ever I experienced a sense of doom it was in that otherwise sunny and nicely decorated office of the officer as I watched the map and our briefer’s finger tracing the parts of Mali that are now off limits and/or ungovernable.  I asked how he was managing to stay optimistic and do his work amidst so many distressing signals and events. A few weeks ago there was a massacre  of Fulani herders. Some 160 of them got killed. This followed after the Malian government cracked down on Islamic terror cells in the country. These terror cells have become more virulent and are spreading, like a cancer across national boundaries (including once considered peaceful Burkina Faso).  The white blood cells (the government’s forces) are supposed to attack these cells but they seem impotent. Militias are forming to fill the vacuum – ICRC is trying to figure out who is legitimate, with whom to establish relationships so it can continue to do its work.

The government didn’t hold, for this and other reasons; people are protesting in the streets, kids have lost a school year as teachers are striking and all the while ISIS is rebuilding its base in the desert – its new headquarters after Trump declared ISIS was conquered. It is not.  It is cultivating its force far away from its former bases in Syria and Iraq. There are signs that Sri Lanka’s sleeper cells were activated from here. The attacks can happen anywhere. This is what terror is about: fear it can happen here. Yet the American press is mostly preoccupied with the Mueller report. As if….

Bombs that can be activated by cell phones, and new mines are being placed in some parts of Mali. This will ensure that more people will lose their limbs and so the national rehab center I am working with this week can expect more and more people who need to learn to live without their God-given limbs. They will need prosthetists, physical therapists, orthopedic surgeons, social workers, wheelchairs, crutches and, most of all, a family support system. It is a very tall order for this government institution that is funded by public monies and, for now, considerable support from ICRC. It will need to wean itself from the latter, just when demand is like to grow, exponentially.

The demand is already exceeding the center’s capacity to deliver the services. A few new regional centers are being planned, some already under construction – but the question is, how can these centers be staffed, supplied and supervised in the face of increasing insecurity in the country. The cities, I am told, are still OK, but the roads servicing those cities are not. Soon it is planting time – but the seeds and fertilizers needed to plant the field need to come over the road – and others are eyeing the trucks for cheap supplies. It’s not just the war machine that is in full operation here – there is a settling of accounts, re-taking of fields and other goods some feel more entitled to than their current owners. I thought of Rwanda where the settling of accounts was as much a drive as the prevailing narrative of ethnic cleansing. I thought of how Kagame, enlightened dictator, has turned things around. A new Prime Minister is taking the helm this week. He has the unenviable (and maybe impossible) task to turn the tide of political turmoil, economic downturn, environmental degradation, insecurity, an enraged population and oppositional forces who want to see him fail. Good luck with the VUCA.